Scenario A

 

Take the survey.

 

Scenario Comparisons 
(2 pages - 4MB)

Download the Complete Scenario Guide 
(8 pages - 9MB)

 

 

This alternative depicts how scenario builders expect Tampa Bay to look if future development follows the growth patterns and trends of the past. It’s the “business as usual” representation of how and where growth would likely occur if those patterns continue – but it is not a forecast of what will happen in the future.

The scenario anticipates the ongoing development of suburban-type communities with an average density of around two homes per acre. The edges of cities will continue to blur and grow together, creating a continuous city running from downtown cores to the outer reaches of the region, generally clustered near interstate highways and major roads.

Subdivisions and planned communities will consist of homes that are similar to each other in style and price, and their residents will need an automobile to get nearly everywhere they go. The new developments will probably have extensive parks and outdoor recreational facilities, but residents will need to drive several miles to enjoy natural open space.

New construction will flow outward from the edges of what already has been developed, with shopping, retail and some industrial and commercial properties being built in a pattern much like what is occurring now. The region’s downtown areas will become more concentrated with people and jobs, but most redeveloped areas will be very similar to what we see today.

If those trends continue, the amount of developed land will nearly double as the population grows, requiring more than 500,000 acres to house new residents and provide them with jobs. While most of that land will be converted from agricultural uses, up to 200,000 acres of wetlands and wildlife habitat may be impacted. State and local regulations call for “no net loss” of wetlands, but mitigated wetlands or those in close proximity to development may not be as effective as those left in a more natural state. The value of wildlife habitat, even if protected, also may decline if connections to other habitats are lost to development.

The vast majority of new residential construction will be single-family homes that are built in dispersed communities requiring more automobile use. When transportation is added to the equation, affordability will continue to be an issue. As a percent of household income, the combined costs of housing and transportation in Tampa Bay already are among the highest in the nation.

Costs for infrastructure to serve those new communities also may be more expensive than improving services in existing neighborhoods. At the same time, a continued emphasis on new construction may mean that older neighborhoods deteriorate and become even less attractive to new residents.

The average commute is likely to become even longer and more expensive as homes are built farther away from employment centers. Over the past 15 years, the population grew by 30% but travel delays caused by congestion increased by more than 100%. If current trends continue, by 2050 those delays will be more than twice as long as they are today.

 

Indicators

For more detailed information on the process of creating the scenarios or more tools, click here.