Scenario B

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Scenario Comparisons
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This scenario places populations and jobs in close proximity to where the more than 1000 citizens participating in Reality Check and One Bay events put their Legos®. Like all four scenarios, it accommodates 3.2 million new residents and 1.6 million jobs within the region, but this scenario quadruples the use of revitalized properties in and near city centers when compared to Scenario A. By focusing growth in mixed-use neighborhoods with village centers, residents will have the option of accessing jobs, shopping and entertainment with a short walk or bike ride.

Nearly 40% of the new housing in this scenario is the traditional single-family home. However, more emphasis will be placed on the construction of alternatives like clustered townhomes, garden apartments, homes above retail stores in mixed-use buildings, and mid- or high-rise condominiums that take advantage of scenic views or proximity to regional activity centers.

Some of these trends already are visible in Tampa Bay. Residential construction has dominated downtown skylines in Tampa, St. Petersburg and Clearwater for the past several years, although more recent economic problems have slowed the pace of new development. Mixed-use centers and neighborhoods are featured options. Residents in these communities have greater opportunities to live, work, attend school and do much of their shopping near home, often as pedestrians or bicyclists, rather than depending upon an automobile on a daily basis.

With an increased emphasis on mixed-use communities, the number and length of automobile trips will be reduced, although an exact number is hard to forecast. Long-term data indicates that people living in neighborhoods where jobs, schools and shopping are close by reduce their automobile use by about 20 to 25 percent, but some researchers who have focused on more recent trends in mixed-use development anticipate reductions of up to 40 percent.

Additionally, enhanced rail and bus transit options become increasingly viable as the population density increases. Residents in those new and revitalized communities may have convenient access to rail or bus service connecting them to regional job opportunities or recreational amenities without the use of an automobile.

Scenario B also results in significant differences in land-use patterns when compared to Scenario A:

Two-thirds more open space and agricultural lands are preserved.
Three-quarters more wetlands are protected.
Four-fifths more priority wildlife habitat will remain in its natural state.

Indicators

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